Low 512.41 --- (Nov) Volume for the month 5,791,000 units
1998 High 764.94 (Feb) Weekly volume 4,259,000 units
Low 261.33 (Sep) Weekly volume 1,542,000 units
1999 High 870.39 (July) Weekly volume 5,702,000 units
Low 488.90 (Mar) Weekly volume 455,000 units
2000 High 1,021.20 (Feb) Weekly volume 5,188,000 units
Low 673.74 (Dec) Weekly volume 122,000 units
2001 High 737.56 (Feb) Weekly volume 780,000 units
Low 547.72 (Apr) Weekly volume 590,000 units
2002 High 816.94 (April) Weekly volume 2,168,000 units
Low 614.00 (Dec) Weekly volume 510,000 units
2003 High 818.57 (Oct) Weekly volume 5,027,000 units
Low 615.77 (Mar) Weekly volume 921,000 units
2004 High 920.57 (Dec) Weekly volume 3,261,800 units
Low 769.29 (May) Weekly volume 2,017,500 units
2005 High 953.88 (Aug) Weekly volume 2,849,100 units
Low 858.84 (June) Weekly volume 2,262,600 units
2006 High 1,110.12 (Dec) Weekly volume 4,893,800 units
Low 883.29 (June) Weekly volume 1,671,200 units
From the above data we can easily see that the volume at the highs is very much greater than that at the lows. This means that if you want to buy low and sell high you should buy when the volume is very low and sell when the volume is very high. Also to be noted is that the favorite month of the year for the yearly high was February.
Looking at 2007, a top was established on 26 February with very heavy volume transacted in the previous few days. The top was followed by a correction that lasted for six trading days. The CI closed at 1,090.39 on 5.3.07. Support came in the next day. From a low of 1,113.29 it resumed it uptrend.
Yesterday the CI closed at 1,363.40 with 1.533 billion shares traded. This volume is moderately high considering that the lowest of the year so for was 808,100 shares and that the highest was 4.7817 billion traded on Feb 22.
I believe we have not seen the best of 2007 yet. The valuation gap between the blue chips and the second liners and mesdaq counters is too wide. Until the lower liners and penny stocks are whipped up as well, the ultimate top will not be formed yet. When people are fearful of a crash, the crash will not happen. It is only when everyone is most optimistic; when new comers come in droves to drive the market crazy; when permanent prosperity is deemed everywhere; when price rises are the norm and expectation of the day and when the market is at its strongest, then and there, a crash will suddenly come.
When will this happen? Nobody knows. The market itself does not know where the ultimate top is. So how can anyone know? Wait till you see people behaving like lemmings trying to cross the ocean in search of food or flying insects mesmerized by a fire in the darkness of the night and performing as kamikazes.
For the present, the good time is likely to continue.
The above point of view is my personal opinion only. You are entitled to your own.
