Monday, August 10, 2009

Whither the market now?

Looks like the market will not reverse any time now. If history is any guide, it's odds on that the market will go on from strength to strength. New birds are probably waiting in the wings. Once these newbies come into the market in droves, completely convinced, that "this time it's different," will the market reverse direction. Presently the market is firmly embedded in an uptrend. A glance at the chart will quickly confirm this.
The market is strongest at or near the top, so the saying goes. Today's volume is less than 1.3 billion. This is a far cry from the historic high of more than 4.2 billion shares traded in a single day. The majority of investors and speculators are still not convinced that this market is sustainable. Beaten by the bears of yesteryear, they are still controlled by fear. But as the market gathers momentum positively, this fear will soon give way to greed. When that happens, the market will explode to the upside. All hell will break lose and cautious will be thrown to the wind. Rises will be phenomenal and the next day taken as a certainty of more rises. Everywhere people will be talking about the market. From shoeshine boys and ice cream sellers to company executives and business tycoons, their topic will be the stock market. This will then be a sure sign that the market is coming to an end.
Savvy investors will sense this as a golden opportunity to sell and unload their shares as quickly as possible. The naive and the not-so-experienced will rush in to buy. At the most unexpected moment, the market will reverse. Suddenly, there are no more buyers. Prices will retreat at an alarming rate and soon the market will be back to square one. By then millions and millions of shares would have changed hands. The smart laugh all the way to the banks while unintelligent ones are left holding the "babies".
The stock market is not the place for you to have fun. You need to know fundamental and technical analysis if you want to have any chance to come out unscathed in this jungle where survival is of the fittest.
Good luck.