Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Bullet Train- Speed is Money

Speed is money. Forget about the tortoise that beats the hare. That's only a fable.

Speed is money. Japan knows it. China knows it. You know it and I know it. China is working overtime to complete its bullet train by 2012. A bullet train can travel up to a speed of not less than 1300 km per hour.


There is a Chinese saying that if you get close to cinnabar (zhusha) you turn vermilion; if you are close to ink, you become black. This simply means that if you want to be successful, you should associate with successful people, and if you want to be rich, get close to rich people.


Singapore, our wealthy & prosperous neighbor is presently the fastest growing country in the world. Since we are close to it, how is that we are so far behind it. And despite our country having abundance of land, rubber estates, oil palm plantations, tin mines, clean water, sand, etc., we are nowhere near Singapore as far as prosperity is concerned.

Why is this so? I guess you already have the answer. It's corruption!


The YTL group once proposed to our government to built a bullet train that can travel straight to Singapore. Unfortunately, this was turned down. Stupid! Isn't it?


Imagine what would happen to the price of our land if we could travel from KL to Singapore in an hour.

The financial crises of 2008 in America did much damage to Singapore. That was alarming. Singapore quickly made changes, and in a short time it has become prosperous again.


Since we are close to Singapore, the spillover effect of Singapore's wealth can be huge if only we know how to make use of the situation.


The Iskandar region is actually in an envious location. If a bullet train that goes from Malaya to Singapore is in place, the value of our land, especially those in the Inskandar region, will multiply many folds.


We talk of increasing our wealth and our income. If we don't quickly make changes that are intelligent, these talks will merely remain in our dreams for years to come.


Malaysia boleh! Please buck up.


Saturday, July 24, 2010

MBMR

A car is no longer a luxury. In our modern world, the hustle and bustle of city life has caused a car to be a necessity. A young graduate needs a car more than anything else when he or she starts work. Just look at the increasing number of cars on the road, and at once you realize how important a car is. The demand for cars will definitely keep on rising over the years. So it goes to reason that any company in this field will have a bright future provided its management is competent.

MBMR is in the marketing and distribution of motor vehicles. It is also in the production of automotive parts and other related products.

In the financial crisis of 2008/9 , the demand of cars was greatly affected. In the first quarter of 2009, the earnings per share (EPS) of MBMR was 3.87 sen. In the first quarter of 2010, the EPS ballooned to 16.5 sen. This is an improvement of 326%! It would be too much to expect such growth to be maintained. However, for the 2nd quarter ended June 30, 2010, EPS should at least be equal to that of the first quarter. Last year MBMR announced the result on August 06. This year, they may do it on the same date. An interim of about 5 sen will probability be announced as well. This is a prediction.

MBMR is financially strong. It has a solid balance sheet with no cash flow problem.

Looking at the 5-year weekly chart, it is easy to see that support of the stock will likely be at 3 ringgit. In the stock market, we go after strength, not weakness. The stock has been in an uptrend since Oct 30, 2008 when it hit a low of RM1.90.

A trend in motion is likely to continue. Thus I expect that MBMR will continue to trend upward.

Nothing in the stock market is certain. In fact the only thing certain is uncertainty.

As usual, you buy, sell or hold at your own risk absolutely.

Good luck.


Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Swiftlet Farming (SF)

Edible bird nest is expensive, something like RM5000 to RM7000 per kg. Demand from China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore and North America is overwhelming. Therefore SF must be lucrative. Our government know this; they are now promoting the industry and encouraging people to go into SF. What intrigues me is why the big boys are not coming in yet. As far as I know none of the listed companies in Bursa is involved in SF.

Planation companies have plenty of land. They can easily go into SF and reap handsome profits in one to two years time. Why are they not doing it? It seems to me, these swiftlets known as Aerodramus Fuciphagus (AF), prefer to live in the town. They like to keep close to people or perhaps they are attracted by the lights.

Indonesia is the world number one in the production of edible bird nests. Malaysia is now ranked second, followed probably by Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Bird houses (BH) have mushroomed in the smaller towns in many parts of Malaysia over the last few years. Abandoned shop houses that have no revenues are the ones first used. Many have succeeded and many have failed.

Are BHs in agricultural land successful? At Taman Makmur, Bentong, many shop houses have been converted to BHs. They appear to be doing well. There is a stand-alone BH a small distance away from these shophouse BHs built on farm land. The owner said that the BH had not birds. This again raises the question: Are BH viable in plantation land?

Along the road from Bentong to Raub, there are at least ten BHs built on farm land. These BHs are all bungalows built specially for swift let farming. Before you venture into this type of business, you should do a due diligence, otherwise your money may not go the way of the swiftlets but those of the dodo birds, gone forever.

If you are convinced that BHs are viable in farm land and wish to go into this lucrative business, please contact me (Tel.016-9321849) as I have a small piece of land measuring 2 3/4 acres that is between two swiftlet farms.

This land is most ideal for the set up a swiftlet farm. Details can be worked out. The land is not for sale; it is only available on a joint venture basis.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KPJ to benefit

In the fight for control of Parkway between Khazanah and Fortis, KPJ is likely to benefit in the furure. In a moment. I shall tell you why.

Initially, Khazanah came out with a partial offer to buy Parkway at S$3.78 per share. Fortis who has a 25% stake in Parkway is said to be offering a full offer at S$3.80 per share. In the battle for supremacy, Khazanah is likely enhance its partial offer to a full offer and also to raise the bid price to S$4.00.

Parkway is in the healthcare business. They have hospitals in Singapore, Malaysia, China and India. KPJ is also in the healthcare business, having hospitals in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Khazanah is the investment arm of the Malaysian government. The majority shareholder of KPJ is the Johore state government. EPF also has a good stake in KPJ.

Should Khazanah eventually control Parkway, it is logical to assume that in the foreseeable future, there will be a merger between Parkway and KPJ. This likely scenario will keep KPJ in demand and therefore its price will not drop.

From a fundamental point of view, if Parkway is worth S$4per share, KPJ should be valued at RM3.70. And should there be a merger between Parkway and KPJ, then KPJ will be worth much more.


Monday, July 19, 2010

What you do not see, touch or smell does not mean they do not exist

Subject: [kalaivani] This a real story of our senior.,


An atheist professor of philosophy speaks to his class on the problem science has with God, The Almighty.

He asks one of his new students to stand and.....

Prof: So you believe in God?

Student: Absolutely, sir.

Prof : Is God good?

Student: Sure.

Prof: Is God all-powerful?

Student : Yes.

Prof: My brother died of cancer even though he prayed to God to heal him.
Most of us would attempt to help others who are ill. But God didn't. How is this God good then? Hmm?

(Student is silent.)

Prof: You can't answer, can you? Let's start again, young fella. Is God good?

Student: Yes.

Prof: Is Satan good?

Student : No.

Prof: Where does Satan come from?

Student: From...God.. .

Prof: That's right. Tell me son, is there evil in this world?

Student: Yes.

Prof: Evil is everywhere, isn't it? And God did make everything. Correct?

Student: Yes.

Prof: So who created evil?

(Student does not answer.)

Prof: Is there sickness? Immorality? Hatred? Ugliness? All these terrible things exist in the world, don't they?

Student: Yes, sir.

Prof: So, who created them?

(Student has no answer.)

Prof: Science says you have 6 senses you use to identify and observe the world around you.
Tell me, son...Have you ever seen God?

Student: No, sir.

Prof: Tell us if you have ever heard your God?

Student: No, sir.

Prof: Have you ever felt your God, tasted your God, smelt your God?
Have you ever had any sensory perception of God for that matter?

Student: No, sir. I'm afraid I haven't.

Prof: Yet you still believe in Him?

Student: Yes.

Prof: According to empirical, testable, demonstrable protocol, science says your GOD doesn't exist.
What do you say to that, son?

Student: Nothing. I only have my faith.

Prof: Yes. Faith. And that is the problem science has.

Student: Professor, is there such a thing as heat?

Prof: Yes.

Student: And is there such a thing as cold?

Prof: Yes.

Student: No sir. There isn't.

(The lecture theatre becomes very quiet with this turn of events.)

Student : Sir, you can have lots of heat, even more heat, superheat, mega heat, white heat, a little heat or no heat.
But we don't have anything called cold. We can hit 458 degrees below zero which is no heat, but we can't go
any further after that. There is no such thing as cold . Cold is only a word we use to describe the absence of
heat . We cannot measure cold. Heat is energy . Cold is not the opposite of heat, sir, just the absence of it .

(There is pin-drop silence in the lecture theatre.)

Student: What about darkness, Professor? Is there such a thing as darkness?

Prof: Yes. What is night if there isn't darkness?

Student : You're wrong again, sir. Darkness is the absence of something. You can have low light, normal light, bright
light, flashing light....But if you have no light constantly, you have nothing and it's called darkness, isn't it? In
reality, darkness isn't. If it were you would be able to make darkness darker, wouldn't you?

Prof: So what is the point you are making, young man?

Student: Sir, my point is your philosophical premise is flawed.

Prof: Flawed? Can you explain how?

Student: Sir, you are working on the premise of duality. You argue there is life and then there is death, a good God and a bad God. You are viewing the concept of God as something finite, something we can measure. Sir, science can't even explain a thought. It uses electricity and magnetism, but has never seen, much less fully understood either one.To view death as the opposite of life is to be ignorant of the fact that death cannot exist as a substantive thing. Death is not the opposite of life: just the absence of it.

Now tell me, Professor.Do you teach your students that they evolved from a monkey?

Prof: If you are referring to the natural evolutionary process, yes, of course, I do.

Student: Have you ever observed evolution with your own eyes, sir?

(The Professor shakes his head with a smile, beginning to realize where the argument is going.)

Student: Since no one has ever observed the process of evolution at work and cannot even prove that this process is an on-going endeavor, are you not teaching your opinion, sir? Are you not a scientist but a preacher? (The class is in uproar.)

Student: Is there anyone in the class who has ever seen the Professor's brain?

(The class breaks out into laughter.)

Student : Is there anyone here who has ever heard the Professor's brain, felt it, touched or smelt it? No one appears to have done so. So, according to the established rules of empirical, stable, demonstrable protocol, science says that you have no brain,sir.

With all due respect, sir, how do we then trust your lectures, sir?

(The room is silent. The professor stares at the student, his face unfathomable. )

Prof: I guess you'll have to take them on faith, son.

Student: That is it sir... The link between man & god is FAITH . That is all that keeps things moving & alive.

NB: I believe you have enjoyed the conversation. ..and if so...you'll probably want your friends/colleagues to enjoy the same...won't you?....
this is a true story, and the student was none other than........ .APJ Abdul Kalam , the present president of India .


HAVE A NICE DAY

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Changes to listing rules.

It is heartening to note that changes to listing rules will be made in the not too distant future. Unless we have transparency and integrity, investors will shun us. While Bursa should take care of the major shareholders, they should not forget to protect the minority shareholders as well.

CEOs who are paid exorbitant salaries and other perks must be made to explain why they are worth so much. They should not be allowed to fatten their own accounts while that of the company is shrinking.

If you are about to invest in any company, you will do well to take a look at how the CEO and the other directors of that company are paid. The data is in the annual report.

Is LKT the highest paid CEO in the world?

The pay and remuneration for top executives and directors have always been subjects of intense debate. Some cry foul claiming that the top guys continue to receive staggering remuneration packages while the investors have to suffer the consequences of the dwindling company share price.

A study conducted recently by the Malaysian Business magazine found Genting to be the company that rewards its directors with the highest pay of all. In total, they were paid well in excess of RM80 million in 2008, well ahead of other corporations.

It wasn’t mentioned where the big chunk of the money went to, but judging from the company’s history, it is quite clear that the current CEO and Chairman, Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, to be the principal beneficiary.

Lim is the second son of the Genting founder, the late Tan Sri Lim Goh Tong, and has taken over the helm of the company even before the latter’s demise. He is regarded as one of the key persons who has successfully steered the company his father founded into multitude of other diversified businesses.

Lim is said to be paid RM77.7 million, the highest amount paid to a single director in the country.

By comparison, the RM77.7 million amount will make Nazir Razak, the CEO of CIMB Bank, to look like a little hobbit standing next to an elf. Nazir is the highest paid CEO among the government companies, with earnings of about RM10 million.

Apart from Genting, other companies which reward its directors with good money include IOI Corporation (RM45 million), Genting Malaysia (formerly Resorts World, a Genting subsidiary. RM37.25 million), SP Setia (RM11 million) and Public Bank (RM7 million).

The magazine also found that more than 600 companies in the country paid its directors more than RM300,000 for the 2008 financial year.

The above article is from: http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/genting-directors-the-highest-paid-bunch/2009/10/02/

Friday, July 16, 2010

Bullshit may propel you to the top, but it will not keep you up there.

Once there was a young cock that was trying to fly high like the eagle. After many attempts, it was only able to reach the lower branches of a big tree.
A bull happened to come by. It saw what the cock was trying to do. " Hey! Cock, since you do not have the strength to fly high, why don't you eat some of my shit? There are very nutritious. I am sure that after taking them you can fly high."
The cock thought for a while and agreed to give it a try. So the bull pooped out some shit whereupon the cock ate them. After some time, the cock felt very strong. With its first attempt it was able to reach the top of the tree. It felt very proud and gave out a long and loud crow.
A hunter who was nearby got attracted by the loud crow of the cock. He quickly took aim and shot the cock down.
That's how bullshit can propel you to the top, but it will not keep you up there.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The battle has just began

The battle between Integrated Healthcare (IH) and RHC Healthcare (RH) means a windfall is awaiting for Keck Seng.

Five years ago Keck Seng invested in Parkway, and to date they have 35,583,218 shares in the company bought at an average price of S$0.82 per share. IH has a partial offer to buy Parkway at S$3.78 per share. Fortis is said to be giving a a full offer of S$3.80 per share.

Assuming that Keck Seng sell all their shares of Parkway to Fortis, they will make a capital gain of RM245 million at the exchange rate of one Singapore dollar to RM2.31.

The paid-up capital of Keck Seng is RM241,393,000. In view of this, the capital gain made is a big sum.

Keck Seng have lots of land in the Iskandar Region which have appreciated greatly and together with their investments in Wilmar, the stock is worth very much more than the last transacted price of RM5.20.

The problem with Keck Seng is that their major shareholders are very stingy. They give out very little to their minority shareholders. Nevertheless, at RM5.20 a share, Keck Seng is an excellent buy for the long term.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

XingQuan

XingQuan was not well received when it made its debut in July 2009. From a high of 1.82, the stock was in a downward drift. It hit bottom in Feb 2010 at 1.05. The share price is a good reflection of the mentality of investors that China stocks listed in Bursa and not in Hong Kong or the New York Stock Exchange are inferior ones. Since its bottom, the stock has been quietly moving up. Yesterday it hit 1.52. The stock is now in an uptrend. It is set to move higher.
Fundamentally, XingQuan is a sound stock with a strong balance sheet. It is doing very well presently.

Key statistics as at 31.3.10 are as follows:
Paid-up Cap: 211,715
NTA per share: 2.25
Current Assets: 791,602 (This includes cash and bank balances)
Cash and bank balances: 599,143
Current Liabilities: 233,003
Par value: 0.10
EPS for the quarter ended 31.3.10: 0.10
Core business: Shoes and shoe related products
For a more understanding of the company, click here.

As usual, you buy, sell or hold at your own risk absolutely.
Cheers and good luck.

You need wisdom more than anything else to be successful in the stock market. Knowledge without wisdom is like an excellent business without good management.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Spain won the cup

It's amazing! The psychic octopus got eight consecutive rights in eight predictions. That's odds of 1 to 6561.
In a not too exciting final, Spain beat Holland in extra time. Those who placed bets on Spain to win by giving away half a ball lost money.
While Spain is able to win the World Cup in their first final. Holland is not so lucky. They lost in 1974 and 1978. They were hoping for a third time lucky. Unfortunately, god was not willing. Now they have to wait until 2014 for their next attempt.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Paul is right again

The psychic octopus is right again. Germany has beaten Uruguay in the fight for 3rd placing. The result: 3 to 2 in favor of the Germans.
Paul has predicted that Spain would beat Holland in the final. Even if you believe that Paul is likely to be right yet again, please note that the Octopus did not not say that Spain would be victorious in the normal playing time. It may do it (win the match) in extra time or even in penalties. So, do be cautious. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Remember, the ball is round.
Good luck!

Saturday, July 10, 2010

FIFA World Cup 2010 - Predictions

Paul, the psychic octopus has predicted Spain to win the World Cup, and Germany to prevail over Uruguay.
Mani, a parakeet, has chosen Holland.
Pauline, a female octopus, has also chosen Holland. Who's right and who's wrong? Only time will tell. In the meantime, remember the saying, "Never trust an animal." Make your own choice. Don't blame anyone if you bet wrongly.
Cheers and good luck!

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Paul, the psychic Octopus

Paul, the Octopus, is right again! Spain have beaten Germany in the FIFA World Cup 2010. It has now 6 correct predictions out of 6 predicted. It has correctly predicted Germany's win over Argentina, England, Australia and Ghana and also Germany's loss to Serbia. This is 100% accuracy! Amazing, isn't it?
In the final 2008 European Championship, Paul predicted Germany to beat Spain. That was the only time it was wrong so far. Spain won the match.
All eyes will now be on its prediction on the impending match between Germany V Uruguay this coming Saturday (11.7.2010 at 2.30 a.m.).
Paul lives in an aquarium in West Germany. Its keeper is Oliver Walenciak

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Friday, June 25, 2010

Sport Betting, is it good for the country?

The World Cup is getting hotter and hotter. By now, illegal as well as legal book makers must have raked in millions of dollars. Do you know why book makers always win? They win because the odds are always in their favor whether you bet on the favorites or the underdogs.

It is human nature for punters to go after strong teams rather than weak teams. The bookies know this well enough to capitalize on it. They are able to capitalize on your emotion. When you bet on a favorite, a bigger percentage cut on the fair payment will be deducted. This does not mean that when you bet the underdog, no percentage cut is made. There will also be a percentage cut on the payment, except that, this cut is a bit smaller. As can be seen from the above, it is the lesser of the two evils if you bet the underdogs rather than the favorites. Next time you have the urge to bet a strong team, keep this in mind.

Nobody has the ability to predict the result of a match accurately. Who has the foresight to see Italy at the bottom of the table or that France have to return to France after only 3 matches or that England, in the first two matches, would perform so poorly. On the contrary, the good performance of New Zealand is also not expected. They got three draws in three games. As for the latest match of Solvakia Vs Italy, the result is also a surprise. How many have predicted that the defending champion would be returning home after the match?

Illegal bookies are doing a roaring trade raking in money by the millions. It seems that there is no way the government can curb this type of gambling. Mahathir, Rais Yatim & Rafidah have spoken in favor of legalizing sport betting. What is your view?

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Some World Cup Observations


Saturday June 19, 2010

Some observations from the World Cup so far:

The Adidas Jabulani ball is having a disastrous effect on the tournament. Players are regularly shooting over because it is too light, and hardly any decent free-kicks have been taken. It's not a coincidence.

Wayne Rooney's inept performance for England versus Algeria makes me think he may be carrying an injury.

Cameroon were the first team to go out of the World Cup after a spirited 2-1 loss to Denmark. Coach Paul Le Guen blew it in the 1-0 defeat to Japan when he left Alex Song and Achille Emana on the bench, and put star striker Samuel Eto'o on the right of midfield.

Eto'o's claim before the tournament that Cameroon could win the World Cup always looked a little optimistic.

The Netherlands have been unimpressive in beating Denmark and Japan. They lack pace withoutArjen Robben and will look a different team when he returns from injury. Still, they were the first team to book their place in the second round.

Referee Alberto Undiano Mallenco ruined the Serbia versus Germany match by giving a ridiculous first-half red card to Miroslav Klose and booking nine other players. The Spaniard backed himself into a corner and set a precedent by booking several players for minor fouls early on.

Young Germany midfielder Sami Khedira looks quite a player.

Chile have been one of the best teams on show so far and are arguably the most interesting tactically, with their lack of full backs. Winger Alexis Sanchez produced one of the most exciting performances of the tournament so far against Honduras on Thursday.

Ghana were lazy in the second-half of their 1-1 draw with Australia. They played against 10 men for over an hour but lacked urgency, and a defeat to Germany next week is likely to see them eliminated.

There is a genuine chance that no African team will reach the second round. They have won just one game between them so far.

(Stewart's World Soccer Blog)


Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The herd instinct

Don't follow the herd instinct. In a crowd, you can be more foolish than you think.

Realize your limitations

Overestimation of one's abilities is a fatal error.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

2010 FIFA World Cup

Which is your favorite team? Which is the fiercest of them all? South Africa Vs Mexico starts the ball rolling at 4.00 p.m. (South African time) on June 11, 2010. Don't forget to switch on your TV for a good show. For more info, click here. (4 .00 p.m. in Africa means 10.00 p.m. in Malaysia.)

Germany are kings of spot-kicks, winning their four FIFA World Cup™ shoot-outs and converting their last 21 penalties in major tournaments.

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FIFA World Cup™ final matches have become tighter, with only 1.6 goals per game in the last five editions compared to 4.7 in the previous ones.

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The Castrol Predictor suggests that Brazil’s chances of lifting the FIFA World Cup Trophy are 23.4%.

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Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Stock-market mistakes

One of the dumbest thing man does is to buy or avoid a stock because of its name. Yet many smart men and women sometimes commit this fault. We all make mistakes. There are none so smart who do not err and none so stupid who are never smart. The difference is that the smart make the right moves most of the time; the stupid do the opposite.

Failures in the stock market fail because they just listen to tips. They fail to do a due diligence before they buy. They are either too busy or simply do not have the knowledge to do a fundamental analysis on the stock. Here are some common mistakes people make:

1) Holding on to a falling stock just to get out even.

2) Taking profit too early.

3) Listening to a hot tip without doing a due diligence.

4) Allowing small price movements to frighten you out of an investment.

5) Depending too much on the PE Ratio when looking for a good stock to buy.

6) Confusing low-priced stocks with cheap stocks.

7) Changing your strategy when it works.

8) Going for the laggards rather than the leaders.

9) Thinking that big is safe and not realizing that small-cap stocks have great potentials to become big.

10) The worst mistake is that you do not know that you do not know.


Sunday, May 30, 2010

The fiasco at Sime Darby

Sime Darby's latest quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2010 shows a loss of RM308,630,000. This is incredible! Not showing a profit is bad enough. A massive loss is surely a catastrophe. The core business of Sime Darby (SD) is in oil palm. The price for this commodity has been around RM2500 per tonne for the period. This alone would have generated immense profit for SD. So, what happened? Some one says they have the best brains in the country. I don't know. What I do know is that the best brains do not necessary produce the best results. Very often they are best only for themselves.


The government has assured us that a thorough investigation would be carried out at SD. It best they do it because the world is watching us. Unless we have transparency, accountability and integrity, foreign funds will shy away from us.


Every time a disaster happens, the CEO needs only to step down. He then goes away, a free man, and probably lives happily ever after. Is this enough? The devil must be given his due. Reward him if he delivers. Punish him if he misbehaves; let the action befits the crime.


Those who have bought SD at high prices, expecting good profit, must be cursing now. They have my sincere sympathy. I do not own any SD shares. If I have them, cutting loss or taking profit is the best action I can think of. In other words, I would sell them now.

Some say big is beautiful. I say apples are better than papayas.


Saturday, May 29, 2010

We are what we eat

Men's needs and women's needs are different as far as foods are concerned. Tomato sauce, oysters, broccoli, peanut butter and watermelons are good for men. As for women, papaya, flaxseed, tofu, buffalo meat and collard greens are the super foods for women. To understand more, click here.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

How good is Richard Russell?

Dow Theorist Richard Russell : Sell Everything, You Won't Recognise America By the End of the Year - By Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider (24/5/10)Print
By Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider
Monday, 24 May 2010 00:29

WHOA!

Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:

Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.

That's pretty intense!


Update: By popular demand, here's more on what he sees in the market. The gist is that the markets recent gyrations are telling him that the economy is in trouble:

And I ask myself, "Am I seeing things? The April 26 high for the Dow was 11205.03. The Dow is selling as write at 10557 down 648 points from its April high. If business is even better than expected, then why is the Dow down over 600 points? And why, if there were 674 new highs on the NYSE on April 26, were there only 20 new highs on Friday, May 14? And if my PTI was 6133 on April 26, why is it down 17 points since its April high?

The fact is that I've been seeing deterioration in the stock market ever since early-April, and this in the face of improving business news. The D-J Industrial Average is composed of 30 internationally known top-quality blue-chip stocks. These are 30 of "America's biggest companies." If Barron's is so bullish on the future of America's biggest companies, then why isn't the Dow advancing to new highs?

Clearly something is wrong. But what could it be? Much as I love Barron's, I trust the stock market more. If I read the stock market correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a collection of other troubles ahead.

About Dow Theory -- First, we saw the recent April highs in the Averages. Then we saw a plunge in both Averages to their May 7 lows -- Industrials to 10380.43, Transports to 4298.12, next a short rally. If ahead, the two Averages turn down and violate their May 7 lows, that would be the clincher. Such action would signal the certain resumption of the primary bear market.

Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded, that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not including golds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible). If the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!

Monday, May 24, 2010

Is it a Correction or a Reversal?

Stock prices stabilized on Friday, but it felt like the selling ended more because of exhaustion than because of some return of optimism.

Since early May, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost almost 10% of its value -- officially known as a market correction. But the big question on everyone's mind: Is this just a correction or the start of something worse, a new bear market?

Despite Friday's rally, the Dow ended the week down 4% and firmly in the red for the year. The results were just as bad for the Nasdaq Composite (down 5% for the week) and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (down 4.2%). European and Asian markets logged similar declines; oil and gold prices were also down.

[Oil]

So what's going on? Is it 2008 all over again? Or is this just a pause in the market recovery that began over a year ago and, until now, hadn't seen any serious setbacks at all?

Bulls point to rebounding growth in the U.S., robust corporate profits and a very friendly interest-rate environment. Bears talk darkly about Europe's fiscal problems, signs of a slowdown in China and the headwinds of new financial-industry regulation.

During the past few weeks, the bears have had the better of the argument. But Friday's modest recovery shows the bulls can still score points. During tense times such as these, Wall Street professionals often look for key "tells" that will provide a clue as to the market's future direction. Good "tells" are key skirmish points in the market between bulls, who generally want to see prices go up, and bears, who want to see them go down. The winners of these skirmishes tend to win the bigger battle.

Here are four "tells" that will, ah, tell us which way the market is headed.

1 Oil prices: When the global economy hums, it needs more of the black stuff. Thus, oil prices are widely seen as a proxy for global growth. When oil prices rise, quickening growth is on the horizon. When prices decline, look out below.

Oil prices also reflect a lot of other issues. Since oil is priced in dollars, a rally in the greenback, all things being equal, will reduce prices. Also, if folks fear unrest in the Middle East or in other volatile oil-producing locales, such as Nigeria, prices could spike.

For the past year, oil prices as a global growth proxy, despite the other issues, have held up well. Oil prices bottomed early in 2009 at just over $30 a barrel and then zoomed higher even before it became apparent that a global recovery was under way.

Oil is down about 20% from its recent high of $86.84 a barrel. But even at around $70 a barrel, it is up about 14% from a year ago. If oil can hold above $70 and edge back toward $80, that would indicate that fears of a global slowdown are receding.

2 GE stock: In March 2009 as the stock market cratered and panic raced through the system, General Electric shares headed sharply lower, closing at the devilish level of $6.66 a share. GE, the only original member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average still in the measure, traded as though it was headed into oblivion.

But GE recovered from those lows. Investors came to understand that the maker of everything from jet engines to light bulbs wasn't about to go out of business, despite some curious and ill-considered actions at its financial unit. Since that time, GE stock more than tripled, rising to $19.49 in late April.

Since then, though, it has pulled back to $16.42, a jaw-dropping fall of 16% in less than a month. GE is an important tell for two reasons. First, it has a huge global footprint and is in many different industries. Second, its finance arm isn't completely out of the woods. When concerns arise about the banking system, GE gets another kick in the shins.

GE has already dropped quite far. If it continues to fall, even just a little bit, it's painting a dark picture of the future.

3 The euro: Up until recently, most people in the U.S. got along fine without thinking about the euro much. Sure, a trip to Paris might spark an examination of exchange rates, but otherwise the euro just kind of moseyed along in its own European way. That's all changed, of course.

Today we see headlines about riots in Greece, austerity measures in Ireland, fiscal issues in Spain and problems in Portugal. It's like the great summer vacation has moved from the travel section to the business pages.

It can be distracting keeping track of European issues (Did you know Malta is in the euro zone? Did you know Malta is a country?), so the easiest way to make sense of all the grim European headlines is to simply track the euro.

The key element is the pace of the euro's move. It's not necessarily problematic if the euro is dropping (it is down 14% against the dollar this year). It is, however, not a good sign if it is dropping very quickly.

The euro is at about $1.25. If it stabilizes or even drifts lower at a leisurely pace, that would indicate that the euro-zone crisis is abating, which would help U.S. stocks. A fast move down will prompt chatter of intervention and make a bear market more likely in the U.S.

4 The KBW Bank Index: The financial crisis began as a credit crunch that eviscerated the banking sector. When things are bad in Europe, bank stocks, especially the big European bank stocks, fall most sharply. When things look better, they put in outsized gains.

Tacked on top of this, but frequently overlooked amid the civil unrest in Athens and jitters stemming from the Flash Crash of a couple weeks ago, is the fast-approaching new regulatory environment for the financial system. The Senate last week passed its reform bill and now both houses of Congress will hammer out a final law. The G-20 group of nations is working on global banking reforms.

The KBW Bank Index -- which tracks big banks -- will tell us if those regulations are going to bite very hard or merely sort of hard. A really sharp bite will create one more headwind for the broader market. Given how Germany's unilateral move against short-selling rattled investors last week, we shouldn't overlook how new finance-industry regulations might affect the broader market.

The KBW Bank Index fell 16% in the last month. On Friday, however, it was up nearly 4%. That would be a positive indication in what is still a "fulcrum sector" in the market.

Write to Dave Kansas at dave.kansas@wsj.com

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

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  • AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE:AZN) has the 1st highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 8.30%. Its dividend payout ratio was 37.11% for the last 12 months. Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) has the 2nd highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.66%. Its dividend payout ratio was 52.87% for the last 12 months. Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY) has the 3rd highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.26%. Its dividend payout ratio was 70.28% for the last 12 months. GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (NYSE:GSK) has the 4th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 4.91%. Its dividend payout ratio was 54.91% for the last 12 months. Novartis AG (ADR) (NYSE:NVS) has the 5th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 4.14%. Its dividend payout ratio was 42.06% for the last 12 months.

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) has the 6th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 3.61%. Its dividend payout ratio was 47.77% for the last 12 months. Tianyin Pharmaceutical Co, Inc. (AMEX:TPI) has the 7th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 3.36%. Its dividend payout ratio was 21.52% for the last 12 months. Biovail Corporation (USA) (NYSE:BVF) has the 8th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 2.40%. Its dividend payout ratio was 58.29% for the last 12 months. Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) has the 9th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 2.31%. Its dividend payout ratio was 36.37% for the last 12 months. Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) (NYSE:NVO) has the 10th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 1.74%. Its dividend payout ratio was 77.24% for the last 12 months.