Friday, December 22, 2006

The scorpion and the frog

The scorpion and the frog

Once there was a scorpion that asked a frog to take it across a stream. The frog said, “How do I know that you are not going to sting me while I am doing it”? The scorpion said, “Don’t worry, if I do that, I will die also”.

The frog thought for awhile and decided that what the scorpion said was not unreasonable. So the frog asked the scorpion to climb onto its back.

Half way across the stream, the frog felt a sharp pain. The scorpion had stung it. Just when the frog was about to die, it looked up at the scorpion and said, “But why”! The scorpion answered, “I can’t help it, it’s my nature”.

Self-destruction; don’t do it.

Change what you cannot accept.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first praise highly

Ancient Greek has a saying, “Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first praise highly”.

In the stock market, my saying is, “That which smart money wish to distribute, they will first push them up”.

A share has three values. There are: the market value; the net tangible asset value, and the intrinsic value. The first two values are easy to understand. Intrinsic value needs some explanation. Intrinsic value means the real value. What actually is the real value of a company?

To know the real value of a company, we have to take into consideration all the aspects of that company. First, it’s the management, its capability; reliability, integrity, honesty and its moral values must all be considered. Then it’s the earnings. Are the earnings sustainable? And what is the likely growth rate?

Net tangible assets and intangible assets, like goodwill, patents and monopoly must also be taken into the calculation. The nature of its business, its dividend policy and whether it has a high-entry barrier is also important and must be considered.

As it is, the intrinsic value is indeed very hard to calculate. I think ten accountants will come out with ten different answers. The important thing to remember is that earnings are the lifeblood of a company. It’s the future earnings per share (without the exceptional items) that matters. Keep this in mind and do your own calculation.

Because of overly optimism or overly pessimism, manipulation, rigging, insider trading and speculation, share prices can go up to great heights and down to incredibly low levels every now and then.

A smart investor or speculator is able to exploit these situations. Can you do it? If you can, someday you will be rich. If you can’t, better start learning now, so that someday, you too can do it and be rich.

Good luck and Merry Christmas.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Everything has a first time

Everything has a first time. Yesterday we got two. First, Johore got flooded to such an extent that it was a first in 100 years. Second, Thailand’s stock market halted trading for half an hour when its stock market index plunged 10% after its central bank imposed capital control to curb the speculation of the Thai baht.

Is this control good or bad for the Malaysian stock market? To some analysts, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. The exit of funds from Thailand may actually benefit us because these funds can flow in to us.

Yesterday I saw a blanket of red on my computer screen all the time. Now this blanket has turned green with few spots of yellow and red here and there. The KLCI at 1073.60 has recovered more than 13 points at the time of writing. Sentiments of fear have improved to stable

The endless flow of news, facts or rumors causes our emotions to change mood. That’s why the stock market is forever changing.

Going forward, I hope the “present” from Thailand may turn out to be good for a Merry Christmas after all.

Good luck and Merry Christmas.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Common Mistakes made in the Stock Market

Here are some common mistakes made in the stock market. I hope readers will take note and avoid them:-

Holding on to a falling stock hoping to get out even or a small gain. (In most cases, the hope becomes hopeless).

Buying in a downtrend or compounding your error by averaging down indiscreetly.

Buying penny stocks without knowing their intrinsic value

Buying on tips and rumors or tagging long with friends

Buying a share because of its name

Not knowing how to select good solid companies

Not knowing what is good advice

Not using charts and being afraid to buy stocks that are trending up

Taking profits too quickly

Speculating more than one can afford to lose

Overestimating one’s own ability (Don’t be the praying mantis thinking it can block a car)

Approaching the market wrongly.

Trying to make the maximum amount of money in the least possible time.

Not realizing that investing intelligently is the right approach.

Not learning from one’s mistakes and that of others..

Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in the stock market. If you want to be a winner, be serious about it. Don’t go in for fun, but for the fund.

Happy investing.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

KLCI closed at 1089.22 (+13.85)

KLCI open: 1078.17
Close: 1089.22; Vol: 8407 million shares
Gainers: 546; Losers:291; Unch: 290

Contrary to my prediction, the KLCI staged a rebound aided by better performance of the regional burses and the bid by Wilmar to privatise PPB Oil. The short term outlook is neutral. For the intermediate term and long term, it is bullish.

RUBHD closed 23c higher at 2.58 and a big white candle has appeared. Volume traded at 16,350 lots had improved. This is bullish. Buy or hold on to your shares. Better days are ahead.

Although the KLCI is at a high level, the second liners and mesdaq counters have not moved much. I see value in the following counters which I believe have upside potentials:

VADS 6.00; AIGB 1.64; I-Power 0.975; Nexnation 0.685; FSBM 1.38; LKT 3.16 and MNRB 4.20.

As usual you buy and sell at your own risk, absolutely. This blog disclaims all liability for your perusal of its commentary, article and opinion.

Good luck and happy investing.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

KLCI closes at 1075.47 (-4.13)

Another black candle. Now we have 3 in a row, all with lower highs and lower lows.This steady downward pattern is bearish.

Volume traded at 786,844,800 shares is slightly lower than that of yesterday. Expect the drifting to continue.

Admid the bearish trend, RUBHD holds up extremely well closing 4c higher at 2.35 with some 786,800 shares traded. It appears to me that the counter has strong support at the 2.31 level.
Base on fundamental, the counter looks good to buy.

The above commentary is my personnal opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

The Correct Approach is Important

Never approach a horse from the back, a golfer from the side, or a fool in any direction.

The correct approach is the key to success. This is true in the stock market or any other type of business.

The beauty of the stock market is that you can either invest or speculate or do a combination of both. Speculation is not my cup of tea. I prefer to invest.

To invest in the stock market means to buy undervalued sound equities or other financial instruments which promise safety of principal and a good return in the form of capital gains or dividend income after through investigation.

Actually capital appreciation is the name of the game. Dividend yield is the safety net. I would rather do my trapeze with a safety net than without one.

Blue-chip counters are easy to identify. The important thing is that you must not overpay for them. You may buy the bluest of all blue chips and not make money because you bought them at the wrong time. It is much better to buy small-cap size stocks which have good earnings per share with explosive earnings growth and a high-entry barrier.

The success or failure of a company is dependent on its management which is normally its major shareholder. Good management makes money for its minority shareholders. The bad ones “eat” them.

Good management means management with capabilities, integrity, and a high moral value. These are not easy to find. So be careful.

Speculation in the stock market means the assumption of a long or short position in a financial instrument in the anticipation of a favorable market movement which should result in a gain when the position is covered. Speculation provides much thrill and excitement. But it is a dangerous game. Unless you are a genius, it is very difficult to make money consistently. At best you have a fifty to fifty chance.

Whether you want to invest or to speculate, it’s up to you. For me, investment is my choice and I would rather stay with it.

Regards.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

KLCI @ 1079.60

Another black candle appeared making two in a row. This is bearish. Will this soil erosion lead to a landslide? Likely, very likely or unlikely? It's anybody's guess. But the market will likely go along the line of least resistance. And that is down.

Volume traded was 955.5 million shares. This is lower than the previous day's transaction of 1,294 million shares. Until a white candle appears, it is best to avoid any buying.

Going against the trend you must resist. Its much easier to swim with the current than against it.

The above commentary is my own opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

As always, you buy or sell at your own risk absolutely.

Sudden storms are short

Small showers last long
Sudden storms are short

Once the downtrend starts, nobody knows when it is going to stop. Be on the watchout for any panic sale.

When there is fear in everyboby's face, it's the time to buy.

If volume increases very sharply with very steep drop, it is likely to end there.

Keeping watching.

KLCI @1088.42 Vol. 1.2294b

Prices closed significantly lower and a big black candle appeared. This a bearish sign. As the candle is at a high level, it could be the first sign of a correction or reversal. Nobody will know for sure. Only time will tell.

Volume traded at 1.229 billion shares is much lower than the highest volume of 2.19 traded on 6.12.06. But compared to average volume during August to October 06, this is much higher.

Because of the quick run-up recently, the market has to pause for breath. Unless there is some bullish news, a downward drifting for awhile is most likely.


This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the chart. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. This blog accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Actions speak louder than words

Actions speak louder than words.
Should you counter-herd or follow the instinct of the herd?

The herding instinct in humans can have both positive and negative effects. Just because the crowd is chasing a particular counter does not mean you have to join the bandwagon.
Study your charts and follow your own judgment. Always think intelligently.

Charts are designed to track smart money. If you know how to read correctly, you can see all the actions. But if you misinterpret, you will have to bear the pain. It is not easy to become proficient in chart-reading. You will make many mistakes. Make you bets small initially, the smaller the better.

Charts are like electricity. If you know how to use them, there are very useful; very good servants but very bad masters.

To learn how to swim, you must go into the water. There is no other way. You may have learned everything on paper but you are sure to sink the first time you go in there. Paper-trade is only at best, a practice. In real trading, everything is different. Our emotions, fear, hope and greed all come into play. Experience is the best teacher. As the saying goes, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating”.

So much for now, and as usual, good luck and all the best.

Monday, December 11, 2006

All that glitters is not gold

All that glitters is not gold
Think carefully before you buy
Don’t leave yourself dry and cold
And bade your money, bye-bye!

Our stock market is inefficient. Because of this, the value of a share is not reflected in the price. Overly optimism causes a share to be overpriced; and overly pessimism causes a share to be under priced.

Manipulation, rigging, speculation, rumors, hope, greed and fear are factors causing shares to be greatly overvalued or undervalued.

A smart investor has the shrewdness to exploit your emotion, fear and greed. You must have the knowledge and wisdom to combat them.

Before you are allowed to drive a car, you must undergo a test to prove your competency. This is because your mistakes can be fatal to somebody else. In the stock market you don’t have to undergo any test. If you have the money, you can just walk into a broker firm, open an account and start playing the market. In fact, the more stupid and naïve you are the more welcome you will be because here your mistakes will be somebody’s gain.

Strive for knowledge. Knowledge is better than gold.

Happy investing.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

There is a time for everything

There is a time to reap
There is a time to sow
There is a time to buy and keep
There is a time stocks must be sold

Timing is crucial. In a bull market, buy on dips. In a bear market, sell on rallies. The difficulty is to ascertain that a correction is a correction and not a reversal. If you read it wrongly, you are in trouble. Worse still, you may compound your error by averaging down. And that may end you up with a catastrophe loss that could be disastrous. A simple stop-loss could have saved the situation.

People say, “Buy low, sell high; or buy high and sell higher”. But I say it is better to buy high and sell low. Buy high and sell low! You must be mad. Rest assured that I am not. Bear with me for awhile and I shall explain.

Smart monies accumulate at the bottom. Their accumulation may last from a few weeks to a few months or even a few years. Once they have got enough, they will push up the price. So the best time to buy is when there is an upside breakout at low level after the forming of a good base. That is what I mean by ‘to buy high’.

At the top, they (smart monies) will start their distributions. Once their distributions are over, there will be a downside breakout. It is very difficult to know whether a lateral movement is a distribution or further accumulation. That’s why you have to wait. When there is a downside breakout, it means that the distributions are over. And the downtrend has commenced. It is here that you must sell. This is what I mean when I say ‘to sell low”. Actually, it is to sell low at high level. Got it?

The moral: Follow smart money, but be one step ahead of the pack.

Bye now folks, good luck and all the best.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

A stitch in time saves nine

I like proverbs. They are short popular sayings embodying some familiar truth or useful thoughts. Much wisdom can be learned form proverbs.

“A stitch in time saves nine”
Your stop-loss, to be useful, must be refined.

It’s easy to say, “Cut your losses quickly and let your profits run”. It is imperative that you know exactly where to place your stop-loss. If you put it at the wrong place, your stop-loss can easily become your stop-gain.
Because every stock has a personality all it own, you cannot generalize. A stock which has a great velocity in its price is different from one that has a low velocity. Therefore, each calls for a different kind of action. If you want to trade, you must master the use of the stop-loss; otherwise you will get into all kinds of trouble. Never drive your car without brakes. Never trade without a stop-loss

Thursday, December 07, 2006

KLCI - near 10-year high at 1098.55

Our stock market is getting hotter and hotter. Now is not the time to throw cautious to the wind.
With an intra-day high of 1,103, it closed at 1098.55 yesterday.

Volume traded hit 2.19b. This is a record high. The last time such a high volume was traded was May 9, 06. From a high of 970 it trended down and hit 883 on June 15. The correction was really severe or was it a reserval? I leave that to you.

This time around, I do not foresee such velocity & severity. However, I am of the opinion that a correction is imminent.

The market is most dangerous when it is most attractive. I see many new comers coming into the market. This is also a danger sign. Nobody knows what is going to happen. This is only a probablity game. Whether it's odds on or not, you have to decide. Think intelligently, though.

Best of luck and good day.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

World’s Biggest Casino

The stock market is the world’s biggest casino
There you’ll find people of all races, young and old
Excitedly going about their buying and selling
Some have no idea of what they are actually doing

The naïve think about how much they are going to win
The professionals work out how much they can possibly lose
The former, unable to distinguish between investing and speculating
They know nothing about manipulation and rigging

Winning to many is the beginning of losing money
Boasting and laughing about your gains is really funny
Unless you know why you win, and why you should win again
Its better you go slow, lest you find yourself in pain

Speculation has a way of fattening you for the slaughterhouse
If not intelligently executed, you may reduce yourself to a church mouse
Investing in undervalued stocks is the better approach
So first of all, find yourself a good coach

Proverbs

Here are some proverbs which I hope readers will like:-

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Winston Churchill

Benjamin Franklin: Wise QuotesAn investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.

It is when the well is dry that we know the price of water. - Ben Franklin
A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him. - Sidney Greenberg
To achieve the impossible, one must think the absurd; to look where everyone else has looked, but to see what no else has seen. - unknown
It's never too late to be who you might have been. - George Elliot
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will. -Vince Lambardi

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. -Winston Churchill
A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits. - Richard Nixon
Yesterday is a cancelled check;Tomorrow is a promissory note;Today is the only cash you have,so spend it wisely. - Kim Lyons
How you spend your time is more important than how you spend your money. Money mistakes can be corrected, but time is gone forever. - David Norris

Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go. - T.S. Eliot
The purpose of life is a life of purpose - Robert Byrne

Hard work beats talentwhen talent doesn't work hard. - Tim Notke

The middle of every successful project looks like a disaster. - Rosabeth Moss Cantor

Most look up and admire the stars. A champion climbs a mountain and grabs one. - Unknown

Successful and unsuccessful people do not vary greatly in their abilities. They vary in their desires to reach their potential. - John Maxwell
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - Roosevelt

You may be disappointed if you fail, but you are doomed if you don't try. - Beverly Sills


Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered, you will never grow. - Ronald E. Osborn


If you aren't making any mistakes, it's a sure sign you're playing it too safe. - John Maxwell

Nothing ever comes to one that is worth having except as a result of hard work. - Booker T. Washington

All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action. - James Russell Lowell
The man who keeps busy helping the man below himWon’t have time to envy the man above him. - Henrietta Mears
Not everything that is faced can be changed.But nothing can be changed until it is faced. - James Baldwin
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Winston Churchill

Benjamin Franklin: Wise QuotesAn investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.

It is when the well is dry that we know the price of water. - Ben Franklin
A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him. - Sidney Greenberg
To achieve the impossible, one must think the absurd; to look where everyone else has looked, but to see what no else has seen. - unknown
It's never too late to be who you might have been. - George Elliot
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will. -Vince Lambardi

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. -Winston Churchill
A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits. - Richard Nixon
Yesterday is a cancelled check;Tomorrow is a promissory note;Today is the only cash you have,so spend it wisely. - Kim Lyons
How you spend your time is more important than how you spend your money. Money mistakes can be corrected, but time is gone forever. - David Norris

Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go. - T.S. Eliot
The purpose of life is a life of purpose - Robert Byrne

Hard work beats talentwhen talent doesn't work hard. - Tim Notke

The middle of every successful project looks like a disaster. - Rosabeth Moss Cantor

Most look up and admire the stars. A champion climbs a mountain and grabs one. - Unknown

Successful and unsuccessful people do not vary greatly in their abilities. They vary in their desires to reach their potential. - John Maxwell
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - Roosevelt

You may be disappointed if you fail, but you are doomed if you don't try. - Beverly Sills


Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered, you will never grow. - Ronald E. Osborn


If you aren't making any mistakes, it's a sure sign you're playing it too safe. - John Maxwell

Nothing ever comes to one that is worth having except as a result of hard work. - Booker T. Washington

All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action. - James Russell Lowell
The man who keeps busy helping the man below himWon’t have time to envy the man above him. - Henrietta Mears
Not everything that is faced can be changed.But nothing can be changed until it is faced. - James Baldwin

Saturday, November 11, 2006

Sterling Performance of VADS

Vads closed at 6.85 per share last Friday, a shade of its all time high of 6.90. What's high normally goes higher.Will yesterday's high be tomorrow's low in the case of VADS? For more information about VADS read here.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Come, Prosper with Me

Fortune favors the prepared mind

Will you go into a virgin jungle without maps or guides, untrained and unarmed looking for gems? The answer is obvious. Yet this is exactly what people do when they go into the stock market . Is there any wonder then, that they failed to come out unscathed, let alone a profit?

No doubt, fortunes can be made in the stock market. But firstly, you must be well armed and well trained. Do you know what causes the stock market to move up and down? The simple answer is supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand, prices fall. When demand exceeds supply, prices rise. The next question, of course, is what causes demand and what creates supply?

Factors, many and varied, affect supply and demand. Inter alias are: corporate earnings, interest rates, inflation, manipulation, speculation, political unrest, government policies, natural calamities, commodity prices, discoveries, new inventions, change of management and major shareholders, etc.

The position of the heavenly bodies can also affect share prices. Surprised? Well, let us look at it this way. Heavenly bodies can affect the weather, which in turn can affect commodity prices and our emotion. Our actions are controlled by our feelings. A man’s action is the best interpreter of his thoughts. Watch what he does, not what he says, to know what he means.

In the stock market you can either invest or trade. Each calls for a different strategy. Let’s look at investing first. To invest in the stock market means to give your money in exchange for equities in the hope of a return in the form of capital gains or dividends. One thing you must keep in mind and always keep in mind is that earnings are the lifeblood of a company. Without earnings, a company will eventually collapse. Earnings are dependent upon the capabilities of the management which must also have integrity and a high moral value. If you do not know the management, look at their track record. The nature of the business of the company should not be overlooked. In our globalize world, the company must be able to compete competitively in the global arena. A small-cap stock with explosive earnings growth, a high-entry barrier, little borrowings and reliable management is the ideal choice. If you spot one, please let me know.

In every endeavor, success needs your labor. The stock market is no exception. After you have bought your shares, you need to monitor them fundamentally and technically. Keep yourself informed of what is happening to the companies’ fortune and share prices.
Never get married to your stocks. Sell when there is a sell signal. When you see smoke coming out of the kitchen, it’s okay. But when you see smoke coming out of the library room, you should check immediately to see what is happening.

Here are some tips which I hope are useful if you wish to invest in the stock market:-

Buy undervalued stocks with good earnings and good dividend yields.
Management must have capabilities, integrity and a high moral value. Avoid the bad and the ugly. If you do not know them, refer to their track record.
Plan your trade and trade your plan. You must have discipline to succeed.
Never go against the trend or swim against the current.
Study your charts. They are designed to track smart money.
Change according to circumstances. Follow smart money, but be one step ahead of the pack.
Don’t listen to rumors, do your homework.
Be patient to wait for a good opportunity. Good things come to those who wait.
Learn fundamental and technical analysis before you start.
Be smart from the beginning.

The above stock market wisdoms are only the tip of the iceberg. Learn as you go along.

Now let us talk about trading. Trading is much more exciting than investing. It is, however, much more dangerous. If you wish to trade, you must learn all about technical analysis first. There are many good books on the subject. Read and learn as much as you can from them. The most important tool for trader is the stop-loss. Will you drive a car without brakes? Of course you will not. Then you must not trade without the stop-loss. There should be no limit as to the amount you can win. But there should be a strict limit as to the amount you can lose.

Manipulation and insider trading are necessary evils in the stock market. Without them, the stock market will be very uninteresting and dull. Charts are designed to track these activities. Forget about the news. Everything is reflected in the charts. Actions speak louder than words. If you wish to ‘play’ the stock market without the necessary knowledge and wisdom, be prepared to lose.

Many have lost in the stock market. This does not mean that you have to lose too. Once you have mastered technical analysis, every trading day will be an exciting day. Henceforth, money should be coming your way.

Bye now folks, happy investing! All feedbacks and comments are welcome. Ben Gan can be contacted at bewise.gan@gmail.com.

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Stock Market Wisdom

Stock Market Wisdom

Value for money you must insist
Going against the trend you must resist
The trend is your friend
Follow it to the very end

Holding on to a falling stock is unwise
Cut your loses quickly is advised
To catch a falling dagger
You must never endeavor

Never kill the golden goose when you have one
Never sell prematurely, if gold is what you want
Undervalued unpopular stock is never a fancy
Glamour stock is the choice normally

Join the crowd; enjoy the ride if you wish
Be careful though, lest you drop and vanish
The market is strongest at the top
Lock in your profit before volume has a good drop

Sell your stocks when you love them most
Take your money & let the deal be closed
Buy when volume traded is at its lowest
The market will then be at its dullest

Investors should buy low and sell high
Traders should buy high and sell higher
Some day you will know what I mean
By then, you may be a stock market dean.

By Ben Gan (October 25, 2006)

Comments are welcome. Ben Gan can be contacted @ bewise.gan@gmail.co

Happy investing.