Sunday, September 13, 2009

The Biggest Stock Scams Of All Time

by Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com)

It is unfortunate, but words often associated with money and fortune are "cheat," "steal," and "lie." Who among us hasn't "accidentally" taken two $500 bills from the Monopoly bank, or forgotten at least once to pay $5 back to a friend? Chances are you were never called on it because your friends trusted you. Just as we trust our friends, we put faith in the investing world. Investing in a stock takes a lot of research, but it also requires us to make a lot of assumptions. For example, we assume reported earnings and revenue figures are correct, and that management is competent and honest. But these assumptions can be disastrous.

IN PICTURES: Stock Scams Slideshow

Understanding how disasters happened in the past can help investors avoid them in the future. With that in mind, we'll look at some of the all-time greatest cases of companies betraying their investors. Some of these cases are truly amazing; try to look at them from a shareholder's standpoint. Unfortunately, these shareholders had no way of knowing what was really happening as they were being tricked into investing.

ZZZZ Best Inc., 1986 - Barry Minkow, the owner of this business, posited that this carpet cleaning company of the 1980s would become the "General Motors of carpet cleaning". Minkow appeared to be building a multi-million dollar corporation, but he did so through forgery and theft. He created more than 10,000 phony documents and sales receipts without anybody suspecting anything. Although his business was a complete fraud designed to deceive auditors and investors, Minkow shelled out more than $4 million to lease and renovate an office building in San Diego. ZZZZ Best went public in December of 1986, eventually reaching a market capitalization of more than $200 million. Amazingly, Barry Minkow was only a teenager at the time! He was sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Centennial Technologies Inc., 1996 - In December 1996, Emanuel Pinez, the CEO of Centennial Technologies, and his management recorded that the company made $2 million in revenue from PC memory cards - the company was really shipping fruit baskets to customers. But the employees then created fake documents to appear as though they were recording sales. Centennial's stock rose 451% to $55.50 per share on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), between April 1994 and December 1996, Centennial overstated its earnings by about $40 million. Amazingly, the company reported profits of $12 million when it really lost about $28 million! The stock plunged to less than $3. Over 20,000 investors lost almost all of their investment in a company that was once considered a Wall Street darling.

Bre-X Minerals, 1997 - This Canadian company was involved in one of the largest stock swindles in history. Its Indonesian gold property, which was reported to contain more than 200 million ounces, was said to be the richest gold mine ever. The stock price for Bre-X skyrocketed to a high of $280 (split adjusted), making millionaires out of ordinary people overnight. At its peak, Bre-X had a market capitalization of US$4.4 billion. But the party ended on March 19, 1997, when the gold mine proved to be fraudulent, and the stock tumbled to pennies shortly after. The major losers were the Quebec public sector pension fund, which lost $70 million; the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, which lost $100 million and the Ontario Municipal Employees' Retirement Board, which lost $45 million.
Enron, 2001 – Prior to this debacle, Enron, a Houston-based energy trading company was, based on revenue, the seventh largest company in the U.S. Through some fairly complicated accounting practices that involved the use of shell companies, Enron was able to keep hundreds of millions worth of debt off its books. Doing so fooled investors and analysts into thinking this company was more fundamentally stable than it actually was. Additionally, the shell companies, run by Enron executives, recorded fictitious revenues, essentially recording one dollar of revenue multiple times, thus creating the appearance of incredible earnings figures. Eventually, the complex web of deceit unraveled, and the share price dove from over $90 to less than $0.70. As Enron fell, it took down with it Arthur Andersen, the fifth leading accounting firm in the world at the time. Andersen, Enron's auditor, basically imploded after David Duncan, Enron's chief auditor, ordered the shredding of thousands of documents. The fiasco at Enron made the phrase "cook the books" a household term once again.

WorldCom, 2002 - Not long after the collapse of Enron, the equities market was rocked by another billion-dollar accounting scandal. Telecommunications giant WorldCom came under intense scrutiny after yet another instance of some serious "book cooking". WorldCom recorded operating expenses as investments. Apparently, the company felt that office pens, pencils and paper were an investment in the future of the company and therefore expensed (or capitalized) the cost of these items over a number of years. In total $3.8 billion (yes, with a 'b') worth of normal operating expenses - which should all be recorded as expenses for the fiscal year in which they were incurred - were treated as investments and were recorded over a number of years. This little accounting trick grossly exaggerated profits for the year the expenses were incurred; in 2001, WorldCom reported profits of around $1.3 billion. In fact, its business was becoming increasingly unprofitable. Who suffered the most in this deal? The employees - tens of thousands of them lost their jobs. The next ones to feel the betrayal were the investors who had to watch the gut-wrenching downfall of WorldCom's stock price, as it plummeted from more than $60 to less than $0.20.

Tyco International (NYSE: TYC), 2002 - With WorldCom having already shaken investor confidence, the executives at Tyco ensured that 2002 would be an unforgettable year for stocks. Before the scandal, Tyco was considered a safe blue chip investment, manufacturing electronic components, healthcare and safety equipment. During his reign as CEO, Dennis Kozlowski, who was reported as one of the top 25 corporate managers by BusinessWeek, siphoned hordes of money from Tyco in the form of unapproved loans and fraudulent stock sales. Along with CFO Mark Swartz and CLO Mark Belnick, Kozlowski received $170 million in low-to-no interest loans, without shareholder approval. Kozlowski and Belnick arranged to sell 7.5 million shares of unauthorized Tyco stock for a reported $450 million. These funds were smuggled out of the company, usually disguised as executive bonuses or benefits. Kozlowski used the funds to further his lavish lifestyle, which included handfuls of houses, an infamous $6,000 shower curtain and a $2 million birthday party for his wife. In early 2002, the scandal slowly began to unravel and Tyco's share price plummeted nearly 80% in a six-week period. The executives escaped their first hearing due to a mistrial, but were eventually convicted and sentenced to 25 years in jail.
HealthSouth (NYSE: HLS), 2003 - Accounting for large corporations can be a difficult task especially when your boss instructs you to falsify earnings reports. In the late 1990s, CEO and founder Richard Scrushy began instructing employees to inflate revenues and overstate HealthSouth's net income. At the time, the company was one of America's largest healthcare service providers, experiencing rapid growth and acquiring a number of other healthcare related firms. The first sign of trouble surfaced in late 2002, when Scrushy reportedly sold HealthSouth shares worth $75 million, prior to releasing an earnings loss. An independent law firm concluded the sale was not directly related to the loss, but investors should have taken the warning. The scandal unfolded in March, 2003, when the SEC announced that HealthSouth exaggerated revenues by $1.4 billion. The information came to light when CFO William Owens, working with the FBI, taped caught Scrushy talking about the fraud. The repercussions were swift, as the stock fell from a high of $20 to a close of $0.45 in a single day. Amazingly, the CEO was acquitted of 36 counts of fraud, but was later convicted on charges of bribery. Apparently, Scrushy arranged political contributions of $500,000, allowing him to ensure a seat on the hospital regulatory board.
Conclusion
The worst thing about these scams is that you never know until it's too late. Those convicted of fraud might serve several years in prison, which in turn costs investors/taxpayers even more money. These scammers can pick a lifetime's worth of garbage and not even come close to repaying those who lost their fortunes. The SEC works hard to prevent such scams from happening, but with thousands of public companies in North America, it is nearly impossible to ensure that disaster never strikes again.

Is there a moral to this story? Sure. Always invest with care and diversify, diversify, diversify. Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio will ensure that occurrences like these don't run you off the road, but instead remain mere speed bumps on your path to financial independence.

Friday, September 04, 2009

5 Lessons From The Recession

Lisa Smith
On Wednesday September 2, 2009, 6:56 pm EDT

The bear market of 2008 was a game-changer for many investors. Prior to 2008, a market decline of staggering proportions was a philosophical idea. The Great Depression was a distant event that few people alive today were even around to experience it - and most them were so young when it occurred that it had little or no impact on their personal investment portfolios. (Remember, the 401(k) wasn’t even introduced until 1978, so even the Great Depression did little to derail the retirement dreams of the average investor.) Now that we've lived through a stock market decline in 2008-2009 that not only wiped out a decade's worth of growth but also changed the face of Wall Street forever, what have we learned? Here we look at the top lessons.

1. Risk Matters
Clearly, the amount of risk taken in one's investment portfolio will capture a significantly greater degree of attention in the years ahead. The decline of 2008 taught us that once-in-a-lifetime events can occur. We've also learned that diversification means more than just stocks and bonds. The simultaneous decline of stocks, bonds, housing and commodities is a stark reminder that there are no "sure bets," and that a cash cushion could save the day when times get tough. The blind pursuit of profit with no thought to the downside is a strategy that failed spectacularly.

Moving forward, investors should learn to be leery. Protecting what you've got is just as important as trying to get more. Keeping one eye on risk and the other on growth is a lesson worth remembering.

2. Experts Don't Know Everything
We put a lot of trust in experts, including stock analysts, economists, fund managers, CEOs, accounting firms, industry regulators, government and a host of other smart people. They all let us down. A great many of them lied to us, intentionally misleading us in the name of greed and personal profit. Even index fund providers let us down, charging us a fee for the "privilege" of losing 38% of our money.

While the collapse of long-term capital management in the late 1990s demonstrated that genius does fail, the lesson was seen by all but felt by few. The crash of 2008 was the complete reverse. Few saw it coming, but most felt it arrive. If we've learned anything from the experience, it should be that blind trust is a bad idea and that even experts can't predict the market.

3. You Can't Live on Averages
Market projections, such as those seen in the hypothetical examples included in many 401(k) enrollment kits, always seem to show an 8% return per year, on average doubling your money every eight years. Those pretty pictures make it easy to forget that markets don't usually move in a straight line. All of those projections are based on the idea that investors should buy and hold, but 2008 showed that that strategy doesn't always work, particularly for investors who are approaching retirement.

Next time the markets start to take a dive, people on the cusp of retirement should pay more attention to the possibility of severe declines damaging their odds of leaving the work force any time soon.

What to do? If you see the train coming, get off of the tracks.

4. You Shouldn't Buy What You Don't Understand
The marketplace if filled with complex and exotic offerings that promise the world to investors. Derivatives, special investment vehicles, adjustable-rate mortgages and other new-fangled investments that may be too complex for the average investor racked up huge fees for financial services firms and huge losses for investors. Don't buy what you don't understand is a trite but true sentiment that may be the biggest lesson from the recession.

5. You Can't Delegate Your Future
Far too many investors operate on the "set it and forget it" plan. They dutifully make their biweekly contributions to their 401(k) plans and let the years pass, hoping for magic by the time they retire. Anyone on that plan who expected to retire anytime between 2008 and 2018 or so is likely in for a rude awakening. Set it and forget it failed. Even target-date-funds, which are supposed to automatically move assets to a more conservative stance as retirement approaches, didn't all do the job investors expected them to do. Moving, forward, "pay attention" may be a better mantra than set it and forget it.

The Bottom Line
If your investments are doing well and you get a good run, rebalance to remove risk. If the markets have fallen as far as you can stand, take what you have left and get out. You should know your risk tolerance and know how much damage you have the stomach to take. When you hit your limit, there's no shame in crying "uncle." It's your money, so manage it. Even if you delegate the investment management to experts, educate yourself so that you understand what your money is buying, what your hired experts are doing and what course of action you will take if things don't go your way.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Whither the market now?

Looks like the market will not reverse any time now. If history is any guide, it's odds on that the market will go on from strength to strength. New birds are probably waiting in the wings. Once these newbies come into the market in droves, completely convinced, that "this time it's different," will the market reverse direction. Presently the market is firmly embedded in an uptrend. A glance at the chart will quickly confirm this.
The market is strongest at or near the top, so the saying goes. Today's volume is less than 1.3 billion. This is a far cry from the historic high of more than 4.2 billion shares traded in a single day. The majority of investors and speculators are still not convinced that this market is sustainable. Beaten by the bears of yesteryear, they are still controlled by fear. But as the market gathers momentum positively, this fear will soon give way to greed. When that happens, the market will explode to the upside. All hell will break lose and cautious will be thrown to the wind. Rises will be phenomenal and the next day taken as a certainty of more rises. Everywhere people will be talking about the market. From shoeshine boys and ice cream sellers to company executives and business tycoons, their topic will be the stock market. This will then be a sure sign that the market is coming to an end.
Savvy investors will sense this as a golden opportunity to sell and unload their shares as quickly as possible. The naive and the not-so-experienced will rush in to buy. At the most unexpected moment, the market will reverse. Suddenly, there are no more buyers. Prices will retreat at an alarming rate and soon the market will be back to square one. By then millions and millions of shares would have changed hands. The smart laugh all the way to the banks while unintelligent ones are left holding the "babies".
The stock market is not the place for you to have fun. You need to know fundamental and technical analysis if you want to have any chance to come out unscathed in this jungle where survival is of the fittest.
Good luck.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Different colors mean different things

I have a friend, who shall be nameless for obvious reasons as I love her dearly. This friends favourite colour is red. Her car is red, flowers in her garden are red, she wears red, her lipstick is red. Need I say more – everything is red. She is a go-getter and the speed with which she embraces life is past the speed limit. So recently I was very interested to read on how wearing certain colours can reflect our mood.

We do react to colour, and scientists have ascertained that each colour transmits a unique message to the brain which impacts our moods in different ways. Consider the list of colours below and consider how your own clothes and decor can enhance particular moods.

Red

Red is a stimulating and energizing colour. It also enhances self-assurance; what woman in a fiery red dress doesn’t exude confidence. Red will produce an illusion of fantasy. It can promote opposition in others ( you have been warned) If you want to be attention-getting, feel powerful and dominate – wear red. The colour also symbolizes love. It is a hot and passionate color. Red is said to increase the appetite, so you may want to keep it out of the dining room unless you’re having a dinner party. In the bedroom, red light helps sexual activity, and could lead to active nights.

Yellow

To wear yellow will rejuvenate and balance the mind. It wipes out the feeling of heaviness and oppression. Yellow is a sunny and reflective and is a pensive colour. It will lift ones mood to be positive and optimistic.

Orange

This is also the colour of love. It is perhaps a little less serious and a little more fun. Wear it to lift your love life. Orange is a very high energy colour imparting boldness and distinction. Is about being different. Like red and yellow, orange is stimulating. It is an antidepressant and also stimulates the mind. Anyone with a desire to sharpen and add focus and purpose to their life can do with a little orange. ( It is potent, do not add too much)


Green

Green is relaxing and tranquil to the eyes. It reduces stress and brings a feeling of tranquility. It presents natural healing and balance. Wear it to inspire harmony in others and restore your energy. It is the second most popular color. Green is symbolic of faithfulness and unity and hope. It is quick to help others even at their own expense. It represents dependability and tactfulness.

Pink

The colour pink is trendy. Its a girly color and is a symbol of innocence and beauty. Pink has a soothing effect. It also speaks of pure love. It is a romantic color, while red is hot and passionate. It also is bright, vibrant, a strong and healthy color.

Blue

Blue relaxes muscles, lowers blood pressure and was found to have a calming effect on hyperactive children. Blue causes a slight psychological change which results in people feeling less hungry. I don’t think you could call it a weight loss program though. Blue is also regarded to be effective for increasing wisdom energy. It is the color of peace, tranquility and is excellent in increasing spiritual meditation and healing.

Purple

Purple balances the mind, brings serenity and combats fear. It’s connected with psychic powers and helps wake up that aspect. Its also the colour that speaks of royalty. Purple stands out in a crowd.

In conclusion; consider the colours you are wearing – maybe you can create the mood you want to reflect. The chose is yours!

Resource Box:

Lynn Zingel is the author and editor of http://www.icando.co.nz. Here you will find words of http://www.icando.co.nz/ encouragement, inspiration, and challenge to change/ whatever you focus your mind upon

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Tongue twisters

Tongue Twisters are great for your tongue-twisting exercise. Below are some for you to try.

I wish to wish the wish you wish to wish, but if you wish the wish the witch wishes, I won't wish the wish you wish to wish.

I see a sea down by the seashore.
But which sea do you see down by the seashore?

If you notice this notice,
you will notice that this notice is not worth noticing.

If you understand, say ""understand"".
If you don't understand, say ""don't understand"".
But if you understand and say ""don't understand"".
how do I understand that you understand. Understand!?

Love's a feeling you feel when you feel
you're going to feel the feeling you've never felt before.

If coloured caterpillars could change their colours constantly could they keep their coloured coat coloured properly?

How may saws could a see-saw saw if a see-saw could saw saws?

A fly and flea flew into a flue,
said the fly to the flea 'what shall we do?'
'let us fly' said the flea
said the fly 'shall we flee'
so they flew through a flaw in the flue.

If Kantie can tie a tie and untie a tie,
why can't I tie a tie and untie a tie like Kantie can.

Fresh fried fish,
Fish fresh fried,
Fried fish fresh,
Fish fried fresh.

Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.
A peck of pickled peppers Peter Piper picked.
If Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers,
Where's the peck of pickled peppers Peter Piper picked?

She sells seashells by the seashore.
The shells she sells are surely seashells.
So if she sells shells on the seashore,
I'm sure she sells seashore shells.

You can't can cans as well as a canner cans for the cans a canner cans are the best cans.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

Posted: 26 Jun 2009 03:03 PM PDT
By Jeffrey Kennedy
Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit – and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?
That’s an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, one of Elliott Wave International’s senior instructors Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don’t claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person’s life. Maybe you’ll find one in Jeffrey’s take on trading? We sincerely hope so.
The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. For a limited time, Elliott Wave International is offering Jeffrey Kennedy’s report
How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups, free.
Why Do Traders Lose?
If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.
Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, ‘How do you stop the Hand?’ Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.
Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology
If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.
How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.
Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline
When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.
Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations
Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, “…$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000…” Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.
Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.
For a limited time, Elliott Wave International is offering Jeffrey Kennedy’s report,
How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups, free.
Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience
The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.
That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.
All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.
How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month … I promise.
I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: ‘Aim small, miss small.’ I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small.”
Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management
The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.
Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.
Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).
To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the ‘aim small, miss small’ movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.
Break the Hand’s Grip
Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work … damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.
For more information on trading successfully, visit Elliott Wave International to download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups.
Jeffrey Kennedy is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI’s premier commodity forecasting package.
If you liked this, also check out: How to Fail as a Trader in 10 Easy Steps
discipline, Elliott Wave, EWI, expectations, free, Jeffrey Kennedy, methodology, money management, patience, trading

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Must Read Quotes from Legendary Investor - Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is the most successful investor of our time. Some of his quotes which are useful are appended below.

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.

Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid.

It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.

It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.

It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it. Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, ‘I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.’ If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases

Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.


Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

Our favorite holding period is forever.


Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.

Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

The Potential Value of Keck Seng Berhad

Friday April 6, 2007

Revaluation of Keck Seng assets
By Yeow Pooi Ling



PETALING JAYA: The market has yet to fully appreciate the potential revaluation surplus of Keck Seng (M) Bhd's rich assets, especially its huge land bank in south Johor.
Main board-listed Keck Seng is involved in four core businesses – property development, hotel management, plantations and palm oil milling.

According to the company's 2005 annual report, about 10,000 acres in south Johor are still valued based on prices at the 1980s level.

The surplus from the revaluation of land, especially in Ulu Tiram, Bandar Baru Kangkar Pulai, Pasir Gudang and Tanjong Langsat, could be significant since land and property prices in south Johor have appreciated due to plans to develop the Iskandar Development Region.

In 2005, Keck Seng sold 181 acres of plantation land in Ulu Tiram to the state government for RM45.4mil, or about RM251,000 per acre, which resulted in a one-off gain of RM39.5mil.

Assuming a price of RM251,000 per acre, the total land bank in south Johor could be worth RM2.5bil, which is a surplus of RM2.3bil from the current book value.

This could enhance Keck Seng's net tangible asset (NTA) by a whopping RM9.50 per share.

The company's plantation land bank could eventually be converted for property development, which would fetch better pricing as it is close to the urban area.

Its commercial properties are also valued at below market prices. The net book value of Menara Keck Seng at Jalan Bukit Bintang, for example, was last valued at RM63.5mil, or RM240 per sq ft, in 1996.

The MAS building at Jalan Sultan Ismail was sold last year for RM130mil, or about RM481 per sq ft. Based on the same price per sq ft, Menara Keck Seng could be worth RM127mil, double its current book value.
The company also owns properties in Singapore, which were last valued in the 80s; two hotels in Canada (1997 and 2000) and another hotel in Hawaii, last valued at 2000.

Keck Seng's investment in equities is also priced at a book value lower than the current market price.

According to notes accompanying its fourth quarter results ended Dec 31, 2006, the book value of these investments amounted to RM146.7mil, but based on market value as at end-December, they were worth RM567.2mil.

Keck Seng owns 4.9 million shares in PPB Group Bhd and 2.8 million shares in Chin Teck Plantations Bhd.

When the Financial Reporting Standards 139 (FRS 139) are fully enforced, all companies including Keck Seng would have to mark-to-market their investment in equities, and state the surplus or deficit over cost as earnings or losses in the profit and loss accounts.

As a result, Keck Seng could see a surplus of RM420.5mil on its investment in equities, which could boost its NTA by RM1.74 per share.

Meanwhile, its healthy balance sheet enabled it to buy Regency Tower in Kuala Lumpur last year for RM62.5mil cash. Its net cash stood at RM189mil as at Dec 31, 2006.

Based on a conservative estimation arrived at by adding surpluses from the revaluation of Keck Seng's Johor land bank and its equity investments, the company's total NTA could reach as high as RM15 a share compared with RM4.34 currently.

However, the present share price is below the year's high of RM5.45, while other property stocks with exposure to south Johor have soared to their 52-week highs. The counter rose 22 sen to RM4.66 yesterday.

The above article is not a solicitation that you buy or sell shares in Keck Seng Berhad. You are fully responsible for your own action. You buy or sell at your own risk.

Are You Ready for the World's Biggest Bankruptcy?

By Tom Dyson
Wednesday, March 04, 2009

The media have given London a new nickname: Reykjavik-on-Thames.

Britain's economy revolved around banking. British banks hold about $4.4 trillion in foreign debt. The total size of the UK economy is $2.1 trillion. This year, the British government nationalized major parts of the UK's banking system. In total, the UK Treasury is on the hook for over $2 trillion in potential liabilities, according to an estimate by the Office of National Statistics.

But Britain is NOT going to be the world's biggest national bankruptcy. The government debt of the United Kingdom is only around $950 billion... or about $15,000 per capita.


This week, the United States Treasury sunk another $30 billion into AIG... its fourth bailout. It also put another $25 billion into Citigroup. The Treasury is now on the hook for as much as $6 trillion in liabilities. Last week, the White House produced its new budget. President Obama wants to run a deficit of $1.75 trillion in 2009.

The Treasury will pay for these bailouts by borrowing money. The Treasury borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds. Tomorrow, for example, it will auction three-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. This auction should raise around $60 billion.

The "debt clock" measures the amount of money the government owes its creditors. Today, the U.S. debt clock reads $11 trillion. To pay off this debt tomorrow, the government would have to collect $36,000 from every American.

But America is NOT about to be the world's biggest bankruptcy.

Of the major industrial economies in the world, Japan's government is the most indebted.

Since its recession began 20 years ago, Japan has plowed trillions into its banking system via numerous bailout programs. Japan's mantra is growth without cost. As a result, the Japanese government has built up the world's most crippling debt load.

The government of Japan owes $7.8 trillion. That's $157,000 per capita.

We've been using government debt per capita to compare the government debts of Britain, the United States, and Japan. But government debt to GDP is the ratio economists use to compare the indebtedness of countries. The UK has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%. The U.S. has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%. Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 187%.

If there's going to be a major sovereign bankruptcy, it's going to happen in Japan. Its economy is a shambles. For years, Japan has relied on exports... but even that's drying up now. In January, Japan's exports plunged 47%, producing a trade deficit. People talk about Japan as a "nation of savers." But that's not true anymore. Japan's personal savings rate has collapsed from 16% in the early 1990s to 2.2% last year.

Japan has an aging population and no immigration. I can't see where it's going to find the money to pay off its huge pile of debt.

The way to play the collapse in Japan is by shorting the yen. Right now, the Japanese yen is the world's most popular currency. Traders perceive it as a safe haven. In 2008, the yen was the world's best performing currency.... Rising 33% against the Canadian dollar, 40% against the British pound, and 19% against the dollar.

Back in January, I told you a fall in the yen was all but inevitable. The yen is down 12% since that article. But according to


Japan Is About to Devalue Its Currency: Here's How to Profit
This Year's Triple-Digit Trade
a Merrill lynch report I saw yesterday, large speculators still have a $3.7 billion long position in yen futures. The analyst described it as "crowded."

The Japanese yen has been in a 40-year bull market. I think a new long-term bear market has just started... and it will end in the bankruptcy of Japan's government. FXY is the ETF for the Japanese yen. When then yen falls, this fund falls, too. The easiest way to bet on a fall in yen is to short this fund or buy put options on it.

Good investing,

Tom

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Money for value you must insist

BY DANIEL AT 15 MAY, 2009, 11:58 PM

Buy quality, go to sleep with quality, and hold quality; you my friend understand the basic principle of investing. When you wake up each day, you will still be owning quality, not s***!

Buy good stocks, and hold until you have reached your goals for that particular stock.

20% off of 8500 is 6800; still higher than the Dow low of 6540 on March 9th.
20% off of 925 is 740, still higher than the S&P 500 low of 670 on March 9th.

I rounded off all the above figures to end in 0’s, so please, don’t anyone call me for being off a point one way or another!

The daily trader 99% end up the loser over time; the people that buy good quality for the purpose of investing, and not gambling, end up reaping the rewards, and winning.

A “true” bull market is not that far off; now is the time to be investing in good quality, and holding on to it till you reach your goal!

Will you take some losses; of course! But, in the process you will, if you are doing things properly, be able to write those losses against gains; gains made by selling good quality stocks at a profit, and harvesting them.

Harvesting = Buying back at a lower price at some time in the future!

I am not going to reveal my net worth or anything personal on the INTERNET; but this much I will tell you - I am quite wealthy!

I have never been a daily trader, I have always been a long term investor; I have reaped the harvest, and all of the rewards of investing smartly, and having patience!

Good luck my friend; you have it down pat - don’t deviate!

Just don’t chase the market; the market, sooner or later, will always come to you, in time!

My father was a great investor; he used to say if you buy s***, you go to bed with s***, and then, you wake up still owning s***!

Do exactly as you have proposed, and in time, you will be a very happy person!

If you want to gamble, go to Vegas!

BEST OF LUCK!

Thursday, May 14, 2009

The Stock Market at The Top

The stock market near the top is a hive of activity
Making money is everyone’s ability
Price rises are spectacular, steady and daily
Today’s high becomes tomorrows low, normally
Everyone is talking about stock and shares
No one is losing and nobody fears the bears
Laughter and giggles are in the air
Perpetual prosperity is what people talk and share
All around, people are boasting about their gains
Not knowing when to get out, they may soon cry in pain
At the most optimistic time, the reversal suddenly comes
The turn of the tide is only aware to some
Amidst the rumblings of thunder and lighting comes the landslide
Prices gone up have started their downslide
Astute traders immediately make their exit at what is given
The naïve hold on hoping to get out even
Sadly, their hopes soon turn into a nightmare
Trapped and unable to get out of their snare
Their monies are now gone for want of a few dollars more
Hopefully, they are now not as stupid as before.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Ginger - the wonder herb


Ginger is well known as a culinary spice and flavoring agent all over the world. It is also used as a herb to treat:
stomach upset, diarrhea, nausea, colic, motion sickness, headaches, common cold and other ailments.
In Bentong at Bukit Tinggi, ginger is widely planted. Malaysian use ginger everyday in their cuisine.

Ginger roots (zingiber officinale) has been used as a folk medicine for thousand of years.

Do not take ginger if you have a bleeding disorder or if you are taking blood-thinning medications, including aspirin.

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Security Is The First Priority

No place is a good place to stay if security there is a problem. If Malaysia are serious about imaging the country as a second home for foreigners or a tourist attraction, they must first and foremost tighten their security.

The recent rounding up of Mat Rempit is a good start. This operation should continue for some time to root out the undesirable activities of Mat Rempit who have become very brave indeed. They fight the police, rob citizens and create lots of violence. What's next? Rape, daylight robbery, road bullying, etc. may be on their agendas if left unchecked.

Perhaps the government should construct a special track for them to do their racing. There, they can race to their hearts" content without causing danger to other people.

Corruption is the root of many evils. Many people contribute to corruption without realizing it. Do you know that if you buy illegal lotteries, pirated goods, stolen goods or get yourself involved in illegal organized gambling, you are actually contributing to corruption?

Here in Malaysia, you can easily buy illegal lotteries. This is a sign that corruption is at a high level.

You can easily judge whether corruption is on the rise or otherwise by looking at organized crimes such as drug abuse, prostitution, illegal gambling or the like.

Once corruption is weeded out, a clean image of the country will emerge. This will be a great boost to tourism. Security will be much better and people can go about their daily chores without fear.

My vote for the next election will definitely depend on how well the present government weed out corruption.

Monday, May 04, 2009

World No. 2 Happiest Country


No. 2: Puerto Rico
Population: 3,958,128
Life Expectancy: 79
GDP Per Capita: $19,600

With the U.S. rated at a disappointing 16th on the list of happiest countries, the World Values Survey saw fit to separate Puerto Rico, an American territory that's culturally closer to its Latin American cousins. The result: The self-described "Island of Enchantment" ranked No. 2 in the world, despite having per capita income lower than Mississippi and receiving less than 15% of the Medicaid funding it would be allotted as a state. But Puerto Ricans, who enjoy permanent summer weather, a vibrant musical heritage, and idyllic emerald beaches, pay no federal income taxes.

Sunday, May 03, 2009

My Prostate Operation

Probably about a month prior to Feb 28, 2009, I was having urinary infection. I went to a local clinic at Bandar Puteri for treatment. My urine was checked and I was given antibiotic to combat the illness. For the one month, while I was on antibiotic, I was okay. But when I stopped taking the medicine, the infection came back.

Finding this to be unacceptable, I went to see a urologist. The doctor recommended that I go for an operation called TURP. He was very reassuring; he told me that he had done more than a thousand such operation and that there was really nothing to be scared of or worried about. As I was also having hernia he recommended that both operations be done at the same time. I agreed to his proposal.

The TURP operation commenced on March 03, 09 in the late afternoon. I was given regional anesthesia. The injection called Epidural was really killing; it was very painful indeed! (I can't understand why I was not given general anesthesia that is not so painful.)

Two days after the operation, the catheter, (the tube that drains out urine from the bladder) was removed from the urethra. I was then instructed to drink plenty of water to induce urination. Unfortunately I was unable to urinate despite tremendous effort amidst excruciating pain. The catheter was then inserted into the urethera again. Two days later, it was removed and I was asked to try to urinate again. Again I failed. The doctor had to insert the catheter again. This procedure went on for a few times before I was asked to go home with the catheter in place.

Five days later, on 17.03.09 I was back to the Medical Centre. Again I was unable to urinate when the catheter was removed in spite of every effort I put in. The taking out and putting in the catheter was really a very painful experience. The doctor then said that he had no option but to use another catheter to drain out the urine. I was put under anesthesia and a new catheter inserted at a point about five inches right below the navel. With two catheters in place, you can imagine the position I was in at that time. The next morning, the catheter in the urethra was removed. That time I was a bit fortunate. I was able to urinate but with severe pain and with a little bit of blood. From then on the progress was slow and painful.

On May 02, 09 I went for a check-up of my urine flow which was weak. The doctor said that the weakness could be due to scar tissue. This is very scary as scar issue has the tendency to grow back when removed. The doctor has now put me under watchful alert for the next three months. I pray and hope that my urine flow will improve over time.

This morning I came to know about Professor George Lee. His article is appended below for those who are interested to know about Green LIght Laser Surgery on prostate.

The green light at the end of the tunnel- Prostate operation
 
I have been looking forward to today in the last few months. Finally, the arrival of a Green Light Laser prostate surgery machine to a Government Hospital in Malaysia. Green Light Laser surgery operation is an important landmark in surgery as this operation offers patients the prostate surgery without having significant morbidity such as blood loss and long hospital stay.
I have been working in London Hospital in the United Kingdom for a few years prior to my return to Malaysia. In the United Kingdom, I had the opportunity to use Perform Laser operations for patients and had observed the benefits of such operations over the conventional operation. Of course, the healthcare budget in the country was significantly larger than the government healthcare budget in Malaysia. The Laser operation for prostate is widely available for the general public, and the costs are fully supported by the Government. In Malaysia, however, the constant thrive to keep up with the state of the art technology for patients is not lacking. This operation actually has been offered to patient in a Private Hospital in Kuala Lumpur recently, and the interest has been overwhelming! In a government Hospital, we are not lagging; in fact we were the first one to place the order for the machine. Although in Many fields of medicine, we may not be in the forefront, however, in Malaysia we have the constant drive to keep up, and that gives me a sense of pride.
Today, we are having our soft launch before the official launch. The list of the patients eagerly waiting for this surgery is phenomenal. We invited an expert from Australia to train the staff and provide laser safety, and everyone could feel the excitement in the air.
Our first patient was a man in his sixties. He has been suffering from the typical prostate problems such as hesitancy of initiating urine, poor flow, dribbling and incomplete emptying. This is further complicated by the fact that he has both urinary urgency and the necessity of waking up at night to pass urine. Despite on medications, the symptom of this patient persisted. Of course, this is a well educated retired professional who also has read up about PVP Laser prostatectomy from the newspaper, and he is keen to have the contemporary operation. The man had the operation under spinal anesthesia, and he actually was awake through the operation and did not feel any pain. The operation went as smooth as the clockwork and we drew a large audience from the other operating theatres. Everyone knew this was going to be landmark advancement in the University Malaya Medical Centre.
I went to see the patient the day after the operation. We were already up and had a shower, and enjoying his breakfast in bed. I asked him whether he had a good rest last night. He reply “of course not! I am still in disbelief that I managed to be one of the first few patients to have this operation in Malaysia. The catheter was removed that morning and the patient went home by that afternoon.
When I was writing this article, I was thinking…”Would I feel as proud with this operation when it is done in the United Kingdom?” This answer was a definite NO! I felt proud because this was a technology we fight for and providing for our fellow country Malaysians.

Is Green Light Laser Surgery the answer to those who need prostate surgery? Anyone who has any experience with it, is most welcome to comment. Thanks.

 

 

 

 
 

Thursday, April 30, 2009

China's new interesting site


In Beijing, the big attractions remain the famous sites from Imperial China such as the Great Wall, the Forbidden City, and the Summer Palace. But tourists are also visiting new attractions such as the National Grand Theater, the controversial performing-arts center near Tiananmen Square designed by Paul Andreu.

The total revenue for the tourism industry in 2007 was $160 billion, according to the China National Tourism Administration. That was a 22.6% increase over the previous year. Tourists, both Chinese and foreign, favor traditional favorites such as the Great Wall (pictured) outside Beijing.